You have to love a guy who has the ability to laugh at himself. His Excellency Wegger Chr. Strommen, the Ambassador from Norway started his presentation by making a joke about himself. He was warm and charming, but did not fail to get his message across.
Norway has the land mass of Montana, the economy of Massachusetts, and the population of Alabama. They are highly dependent on the sea. They draw their economic wealth from oil, gas, fishing, and other off shore activities. The Arctic is a sea that is covered by ice, and Norway sits right against it. He announced that Russia and Norway had finally settled their claims disputes in the Arctic region. This is one area that is still disputing its territorial borders, but as it is not really an industrial region (there is no land here, after all) it is normal to have these kinds of disputes. Besides, the ice shelf changes from year to year, even season to season. This is the background to which the science was introcuded.
The first speaker, Dr. Steven Nerem spoke about the spiral that is warming the Arctic. As the Arctic region warms, more ice melts. The water absorbs more heat than reflective ice. This warm ocean water melts more ice, thus leaving less reflective surface, causing more ice to melt and so on. Then he spoke of rising sea levels. Rising sea levels are due to multiple reasons. One reason that no one really speaks about is that water absorbs heat and expands. The warmer the ocean, the more the water of the oceans expand. Sea level changes are really not affected by the melting directly of melting ocean ice. Instead the melting of land based ice has a larger affect on sea level rising. It does have an affect on the salinity of the oceans, because ice is fresh water and sea water is salty. But as water warms, it expands and causes rising. If we melt the mountain glaciers, this will raise sea levels .75 meters; the ice of Greenland- 7 meters; and the Antarctic ice sheet 60 m The Earth has not been this warm for 125,000 years and sea levels were about 6 meters higher than they are today. There were numerous graphs and charts showing all kinds of data measuring the rise in sea levels. Ice sheet mass balance is a complicated algorithmic formula and shows how much glaciers are melting. Glaciers are melting around Greenland at crazy rates. As they melt they slide into the ocean and melt some more. If you think this doesn’t affect the planet, you should take note that measurements are taken of the Earths gravity and the gravity of the planet is affected by ice melt in Greenland. The summary of the story is that mountain glaciers are contributing to sea level rise by about 1 mm per year; thermal expansion, 1 mm/year; Greenland glaciers. 0.5mm/year; and Antarctic melt 0.5/year… for a total of 3 mm per year. Overall we can expect a rate increase of sea level of somewhere between 1 and 6 meters. This means a huge chunk of Florida and the gulf coast will end up under water. Also, the last decade we have seen the sea level rises of twice what we saw over the last century. During the Q & A section, we touched on the release of methane gas that is trapped in the the permafrost and it’s potential to increase the entire speed of the problem.
Rafe Pomerance was the next speaker. He took a different approach to the climate change issue. His slant is the political approach. 30 years ago, climate change and greenhouse gases were issues that were not even on the political radar. So while our issues are huge, we are making progress in that we are at the very least talking about it and trying to address the issues at hand. We are currently looking at legislation in America and how it could affect the political landscape. As America goes, so does much of the world. Ohio is key in this, as our Senators are swing votes in this legislation. Moreover, Ohio is in a difficult situation. As an economy that has been deeply affected by the economic downturn, and whose economy has always been built on manufacturing and whose power is drawn heavily from coal. we are more heavily affected by legislation in this area than much of the US.
Next we looked at Cap and Trade and how capping CO2 emissions can impact the economy. Of course, politics is always an interesting area. In the current economic climate, environment and pollution is not high on the priority list for most Americans. However, we are at the point that something needs to happen. At least the politics globally for climate change legislation is putting pressure on the US to create legislation. While the overall climate is positive, the feeling is that getting the Senate to pass legislation in this session is not very high. This is why senators in coal usage states (like Ohio) need to hear from their constituents.
Dr. Pal Prestrud was the final speaker. He arrived after 30 hours of travel to come to Cleveland. It is encouraging that someone would travel so far and so long just to come to Cleveland. It is also important to note that the world thinks that Cleveland is important
in changing the minds of Americans in this debate. He showed shocking slides of snow melt. Not just in other parts of the world that is easy for us to ignore, but right here in the US. Remember Alaska is not far from the Arctic and we are seeing significant snow loss here. The scary thing is that he talked about was how we do not really have adequate models for what is happening. we are seeing much bigger changes in the environment than any of our models have predicted. While our models make the case strong and important, if trends continue to out pace the models that we have created, then the case could be dire. Solar heat and radiation are reflected at a rate of 85-90% by snow and ice, but only 20% by earth and vegetation. Also, warming water changes the currents and the deep water cold. This has a huge impact on fishing, tourism, and sea creatures. Then he spoke more about the release of methane in the permafrost and how it will affect the planet. As ice melts, it raises interesting issues around politics and sociology. Indigenous people who have little political clout, and who have less impact on the planet are more adversely affected by climate change. Also, who owns the small islands in the Arctic? While debates have continued, while this ice is in place no one cares much, but as land is uncovered these debates become more important. There are more creatures affected by melting ice than just polar bears, a whole host of wildlife is at risk.
Overall the discussion was interesting and informative. While I am already following the global warming/ice melt debate, I learned quite a lot from the overall presentation. Norway is warming, ice is melting, and the US is key to changing and creating global legislation around this issue.
